As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general elections, President Bola Tinubu is encountering mounting resistance from within his own political base. Allies of ex-President Muhammadu Buhari, once united under the All Progressives Congress (APC) are now coalescing with opposition figures in a bid to block Tinubu’s re-election ambitions.
What began as low-key discontent within the APC has evolved into open defiance, with prominent figures like former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, ex-Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal, and former ministers Rotimi Amaechi and Abubakar Malami now aligning against Tinubu. Also joining the emerging opposition front are former APC National Chairman John Odigie-Oyegun and other influential Buhari-era associates.
This group has found a new political platform in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), controversially installing former Senate President David Mark as interim national chairman and ex-Governor Rauf Aregbesola as secretary.
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The rift within the APC isn’t new. While Tinubu was instrumental in Buhari’s historic 2015 victory—leveraging his South-West political machinery and alliances with key northern figures—relations have since frayed. Tinubu’s 2023 campaign, described by him as a “lifelong ambition,” saw him clinch the presidency despite internal party opposition, a contentious Muslim-Muslim ticket, and widespread public skepticism.
His poor showing in Buhari’s traditional strongholds—Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina—underscored cracks in the once-solid APC coalition. One of the most notable fallouts came when El-Rufai, initially nominated for a ministerial post, was dropped due to a negative security report. The political breakup was swift and public, with El-Rufai quoted in May saying, “Forgive me for bringing this evil Tinubu to power in 2023. It won’t happen again in 2027.”
El-Rufai has since joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and is reportedly leading efforts to forge a broad opposition alliance comprising the ADC, PDP, SDP, and disgruntled APC members. Key political heavyweights such as Atiku Abubakar, Sule Lamido, David Mark, Aminu Tambuwal, Babachir Lawal, and Amaechi are said to be involved in this coalition.
However, the coalition faces internal challenges. Dumebi Kachikwu, the ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, has dismissed the new leadership structure as illegitimate. “The coalition is dealing with people whose tenure expired in 2022. We are watching with amusement,” he said.
Despite the mounting pressure, Tinubu remains defiant. A senior presidential aide, speaking anonymously, noted that the president is “unfazed” and actively reworking his political alliances. “Remember 2023? He survived the backlash. Don’t write him off,” the aide said.
There are also reports that Tinubu may be considering a change in his 2027 running mate, with Kano’s Rabiu Kwankwaso emerging as a possible replacement for Vice President Kashim Shettima—an effort to strengthen his northern base.
Meanwhile, not all of Buhari’s former allies are turning their backs on Tinubu. A faction of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) a legacy party that merged into the APC has declared unwavering support for the president. Meeting recently in Abuja, the group included notable figures such as:
- Dr. Tajudeen Abbas (Speaker, House of Representatives)
- Governor Dikko Radda (Katsina State)
- Governor Umar Bago (Niger State)
- Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maitama Tuggar
- Former Governor Tanko Al-Makura (Nasarawa)
- Former Governor Aminu Masari (Katsina)
- NDLEA Chairman, Buba Marwa (retd.)
Speaking on behalf of the group, Hon. Farouk Adamu affirmed their continued loyalty. “We are with Tinubu, just like our leader Buhari. He will be our candidate again in 2027,” he stated.
The opposition coalition may hope to replicate the 2015 political upset that toppled a sitting president through a united front. But Tinubu—known for his strategic resilience—has weathered similar storms before. With the PDP still grappling with internal fractures and the APC facing rebellion within, Nigeria’s 2027 election is shaping up to be a battle that could redefine the country’s political landscape.
Notable Buhari-Era Figures Now in ADC or Opposition Coalition:
- Rotimi Amaechi
- Abubakar Malami
- Hadi Sirika
- Rauf Aregbesola
- Kashim Imam
- Chief John Odigie-Oyegun
While the anti-Tinubu camp gains momentum, history suggests that underestimating Tinubu could come at a high political cost. As both camps gear up for a showdown, the race to 2027 has already begun in earnest.
