Report reveals that Tinubu will to the 2023 presidential election, but presidency will cause instability across Nigeria.
Newsonline reports that a research organisation, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, has predicted that
the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, will emerge victorious in the 2023 presidential election.
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The organisation made the prediction in a report released on Friday.
The company said a split vote between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party LP), and other opposition parties will favour the ruling APC.
It, however, said Tinubu’s victory in the 2023 presidential poll would lead to social instability and protests across the country because of the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket.
The firm added that a win for Tinubu would likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians and also break the unwritten tradition of alternating the Presidency between Christians and Muslims.
The report said: “We maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between northern and southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims.
“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.”
In the report, the company said Tinubu would defeat the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, despite some polls predicting his emergence as the next president.
Citing a 2020 World Bank report, the firm said only 36 percent of Nigerians use the internet where there is huge traction to Obi.
The report said: “Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.
“Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.”
