Energy experts in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector have defended the pricing structure of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, accusing some fuel markers of attempting to blackmail the refinery and mislead the public over the recent increase in petrol prices.
The experts said reports suggesting that the refinery’s latest adjustment is solely responsible for the recent hike in fuel prices were misleading, noting that importers are also bringing in petrol at almost a N1,000 per litre, while the refinery’s coastal price is N948 and the gantry or ex-depot price stands at N995 per litre.
They stressed that public comparisons fail to consider the differences in pricing structures and supply channels.
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According to the experts, N948 per litre represents the coastal delivery price, which refers to petroleum products transported by marine vessels or barges from the refinery to depots along the coastline. On the other hand, N995 per litre represents the gantry or ex-depot price, which is the rate paid by marketers who load petrol directly from the refinery into tanker trucks at the loading gantry for onward distribution across the country.
The experts explained that the two figures should not be interpreted as conflicting prices but rather as different logistics arrangements within the petroleum distribution chain.
Speaking with our correspondent on Sunday, energy expert David Okon said the pricing adjustments were inevitable given prevailing market conditions.
According to him, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals operates in a deregulated market and procures crude at international prices, which have risen sharply due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“The refinery is already absorbing part of the cost to cushion the impact of the crisis on Nigerians. We can see what is happening in other parts of the world where shortages and scarcity are being reported despite higher prices, yet the Dangote Refinery has continued to guarantee domestic supply,” he said.
Okon explained that when the refinery previously sold petrol at N774 per litre, crude oil was landing at about $68 per barrel. However, with crude now arriving at roughly $95 per barrel, the cost difference of about $27 per barrel translates to nearly N40,000 per barrel when converted to Naira.
“You cannot expect a refinery to continue selling at the old rate under those circumstances,” he added.
“If imported products were truly cheaper, importers would still be selling at the previous prices.”
He warned that without local refining capacity, Nigeria could have faced severe fuel shortages, long queues at filling stations and a resurgence of black market sales.
“Without the Dangote Refinery, many filling stations would likely shut down, queues would return across the country and black market traders would exploit the situation, hawking four litres keg at N20,000 or more. The refinery has effectively prevented that scenario,” he said.
Another analyst, Mohammed Ibrahim, also faulted narratives circulating in some quarters suggesting that the refinery’s pricing adjustment was responsible for worsening economic hardship in the country.
Accusing some importers of attempting to manipulate public perception, he said, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.
“They are twisting the pricing structure to mislead Nigerians and create unnecessary panic in the market.
“By exaggerating the refinery’s gantry price and ignoring the comparable costs of imported fuel, they are trying to make it appear as though Dangote Refinery is the cause of rising prices and economic hardship. This is a calculated attempt to protect their import businesses and undermine local refining, which is meant to reduce our dependence on imported petrol.”
Ibrahim added that such narratives were aimed at portraying the refinery as the reason Nigerians were struggling with higher petrol prices.
He stressed that petrol pricing in Nigeria is largely influenced by global crude oil prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and distribution logistics, noting that these factors affect both locally refined and imported fuel in the country’s deregulated market.
Afolabi Olowookere, Managing Director and Chief Economist at Analysts’ Data Services and Resources (ADSR) Limited, explained that although Nigerians expect refined products from the refinery to be significantly cheaper, prevailing market realities such as global crude oil prices, the cost of crude supply and refining margins make substantial price reductions unlikely in the short term.
“Therefore, improving domestic crude allocation to the refinery would strengthen supply stability and enhance the long term benefits of local refining for the economy,” Olowookere noted.
Recent conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions along key shipping lanes have tightened global oil supply, pushing crude prices past $90 per barrel, a development that directly raises the cost of both imported and locally refined petrol in Nigeria.
The unrest has pushed up fuel costs and transportation in several countries, including Ghana, the United States, the United Kingdom, South Africa, India, Canada, Brazil, Germany, France, and Japan, as rising crude prices increase the cost of refining, distribution, and logistics globally.
