BREAKING: Nigeria Rated “Critical” on 2025 Instability Risk Index by SBM Intelligence

Nigeria has been rated “critical” on 2025 Instability Risk Index by SBM Intelligence.

NewsOnline Nigeria reports that Nigeria has been classified as “critical” in the 2025 Africa Country Instability Risk Index released by SBM Intelligence, receiving a total score of 52 out of 100. The report, published on Monday, evaluates political and economic risks that could affect businesses, investor confidence, and national stability, placing the country among the most vulnerable in Africa.

The index assesses four major risk clusters: Leadership and Governance (40%), Economy (30%), Geopolitics (15%), and History (15%). Under the 2025 evaluation, Nigeria scored: Leadership and Governance – 16, Economy – 20, Geopolitics – 6, and History – 10, combining for a total score of 52, categorizing the nation as “Critical.”

Economic Fragility, Poverty, and Insecurity Highlighted

 

SBM Intelligence cited persistent economic fragility, widespread insecurity, and rising poverty as key factors driving Nigeria’s high-risk status. The report noted that inflation moderation following GDP rebasing, removal of petrol subsidies, and exchange rate reforms have increased living costs, forcing many citizens and businesses into hardship.

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The report emphasized that fiscal tightening and renewed investor engagement have prevented a total economic collapse, while ongoing policy reforms are gradually stabilizing macroeconomic fundamentals.

Political Divisions Continue to Affect Stability

The analysis also flagged lingering political divisions from the 2023 elections, which continue to influence governance efficiency and national cohesion. Nevertheless, institutional continuity and gradual reforms have helped Nigeria avoid a deeper crisis.

Regional Insights

Other African countries assessed in the 2025 ranking include Congo Brazzaville (55), Chad (64), Zambia (35), Benin (42), Ivory Coast (44), Equatorial Guinea (49), Guinea (51), Ghana (32), Malawi (36), and Mozambique (39). The report attributed East and Central Africa’s weaker performance to the Sudan war and the M-23 crisis, while coups and Islamist insurgencies affected West Africa.

Context and Previous Rankings

Earlier this year, Nairametrics reported Nigeria ranked 116th in the 2025 Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI), highlighting ongoing struggles in governance and failure to rank among the top five African nations, further underscoring challenges in leadership, policy implementation, and institutional capacity.

SBM Intelligence’s assessment signals urgent attention is needed in economic stabilization, security enforcement, and political cohesion to avoid further deterioration in Nigeria’s national resilience.