World Bank Keeps Nigeria’s 2027 Growth at 4.4%, Upgrades 2026 Outlook on Strong Services and Farm Output

World Bank has kept Nigeria’s 2027 growth at 4.4% and upgraded 2026 Outlook on strong services and farm output.

 

NewsOnline Nigeria reports that the World Bank has maintained its 4.4 per cent economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027, reaffirming confidence in the country’s medium-term prospects despite ongoing structural challenges.

 

The projection was contained in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026 and mirrors the estimate earlier published in the Nigeria Development Update in October 2025.

 

In a positive revision, the Bretton Woods institution also raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent projected in its June 2025 outlook, citing improving macroeconomic conditions.

 

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With both 2026 and 2027 now pegged at 4.4 per cent, the World Bank says Nigeria is on track to record its fastest growth in more than a decade. The expansion is expected to be driven mainly by sustained momentum in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural output, and modest growth in non-oil industrial activities.

 

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the Bank stated, adding that services and agriculture will remain the main pillars of growth over the period.

 

The report also highlighted the role of ongoing reforms, particularly in the tax system, alongside prudent monetary policy in supporting economic activity and improving stability.

 

“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” the Bank said, noting that these measures should help boost investor confidence and further tame inflation.

 

It added that higher oil production is expected to help offset weaker global oil prices, supporting fiscal revenues and strengthening Nigeria’s external position.

 

The World Bank’s emphasis on non-oil growth underlines Nigeria’s gradual shift toward a more diversified economy. Stronger services and agricultural sectors could help drive job creation, stabilise prices, and broaden the government’s revenue base.

 

For investors and policymakers, the outlook provides reassurance that recent reforms are beginning to translate into tangible economic gains, even as risks remain.

 

The World Bank also expects economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to improve to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation.

 

Globally, growth is projected to ease slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, reflecting moderating inflation and stabilising financial conditions.

 

Nigeria’s economy had earlier grown by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.