CBN MPC Poised for Possible Rate Cut Amid Inflation Moderation, Naira Stability

CBN MPC is reportedly poised for possible rate cut amid inflation moderation and Naira stability.

 

NewsOnline Nigeria reports that all eyes are on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as it convenes its 302nd meeting on September 22–23, 2025, with expectations high that the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) may be reduced by 25–50 basis points.

Analysts cite easing inflation, improved naira stability, and supportive global monetary conditions as the main drivers of a possible cut. However, some experts caution that the MPC could still hold rates at 27.50% to safeguard fragile economic stability and maintain policy credibility.

READ ALSO: Buhari Loyalists Dump APC, Declare Support for Atiku Ahead of 2027

Inflation, Naira Stability Provide Room to Ease

Headline inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month in August 2025, the longest downward streak since 2022. At 20.12%, inflation has slowed significantly from July’s 21.88%, buoyed by softer food and energy prices.

The naira has also traded within a N1,480–N1,600 per USD range for six months, supported by stronger foreign portfolio inflows, oil receipts, and CBN interventions. This contrasts sharply with the volatility of 2024, restoring some investor confidence.

Global conditions have added further relief. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut on September 17 has reduced tightening pressures on emerging markets, giving the CBN more flexibility to adjust domestic monetary policy without triggering capital flight.

Expert Views Split

• Oyeshola Mosimiloluwa, Portfolio Manager, CFG Africa:
  “At its 302nd MPC meeting, the CBN is expected to weigh inflation moderation and sustained FX stability. With the Fed’s recent cut, the CBN has more room to ease rates. We see a modest 25–50bps cut as likely.”

• Victor Onyema, Head of Investment Management, Norrenberger Asset Management:
  “The MPC will most likely go with a cautious 25bps cut. Inflation has moderated, FX liquidity has improved, and this would balance growth support with maintaining investor confidence. Fixed-income yields could compress as investors reposition for an easing cycle.”

• Jessica Ifada, Equities Trader, Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd:
  “Holding the MPR steady at 27.50% for three meetings shows the CBN’s cautious stance. A shift is possible, but more probable in Q4 2025 if inflation eases sustainably.”

Key Drivers for a Potential Cut

1. Declining Inflation: Inflation has eased for five straight months, the sharpest moderation in over three years.

2. Exchange Rate Stability: The naira has remained within a stable trading band since February.

3. Global Monetary Trends: The U.S. Fed’s cut reduces external pressures, creating room for Nigeria to ease.

Balancing Growth and Credibility

While inflation remains above 20%, still high by global standards month-on-month trends suggest price pressures are softening. GDP growth, however, remains fragile, and higher rates risk stifling credit and investment.

NewsOnline Nigeria understands that businesses and investors have consistently called for lower borrowing costs despite CBN hawkish stance to protect price and FX stability. The September meeting will test whether the MPC prioritizes easing growth pressures or continues to reinforce its anti-inflation posture.

The decision, whether to cut or hold will set the tone for Nigeria’s monetary policy heading into Q4 2025 and could signal how much confidence the CBN has in the economy’s fragile recovery.